Commentary

“I am not more gifted than the average human being. If you know anything about history, you would know that is so – what hard times I had in studying and the fact that I do not have a memory like some other people do…I am just more curious than the average person and I will not give up on a problem until I have found the proper solution. This is one of my greatest satisfactions in life – solving problems – and the harder they are, the more satisfaction do I get out of them. Maybe you could consider me a bit more patient in continuing with my problem than is the average human being. Now, if you understand what I have just told you, you see that it is not a matter of being more gifted but a matter of being more curious and maybe more patient until you solve a problem.”

Fueled by government stimulus and vaccinated Americans more confident to leave home, retail sales jumped 9.8%. Also in good news, initial jobless claims fell below 600,000 for the first time since last March, and inflation, despite initial fears, is only making a slow creep upward. Our Weekly Market Commentary gives you the details and discussion.

Investors didn’t stumble over inflation last week. Why not?Inflation – rising prices of goods and services – can be measured in a variety of ways. For example, the Consumer Price Index considers changes in the amount consumers pay for goods and services – a bag of carrots, a gallon of gas, or a doctor’s appointment. […]

Big economies tend to recover from recessions about as quickly as semi-trucks accelerate from stop lights. In other words, recovery tends to be slow. That may not be the case this time.

March 29, 2021

Market Commentary: Monthly Job Growth Exceeds Expectations, New Stimulus Bill Advances
The economy created 379,000 jobs last month, and U.S. manufacturing reached a post-COVID high. Meanwhile, the stimulus bill made it through the Senate to the House this week. Our update looks at the progress.

Students of financial markets may have noted a historically unusual event last week. On Thursday, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes briefly matched the dividend yield for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index. This type of convergence is uncommon. In normal times, the yield on 10-year Treasuries tends to be higher than the dividend […]

Market Commentary: Inflation Remains Low, Strong S&P 500 Earnings Continue
Americans took their stimulus checks to the store, as retail and food service sales rose. Effective vaccine distribution also encouraged activity, and the S&P remains strong. Is the long economic winter starting to thaw? Maybe so

Market Commentary: Despite Initial Worry, Inflation Remains Well Controlled
Inflation is under control for the moment, but everyone’s keeping an eye on it. Meanwhile, unemployment claims inched down and the S&P 500 is poised to show the first quarter of earnings growth since 2019. Recovery seems to be coming, just taking the long way around.

It’s not a black diamond ski run yet, but the yield curve for U.S. Treasuries is steeper than it has been in a while.